Last December, Stockmarts held a seminar for the Top 10 Stocks in 2015! Mark and I attended the seminar, together with other Pinoy investors. I personally learned a lot from Marvin Germo and Ren Agawa. Somehow, I can relate what kind of investor I am. Marvin is a trader, he recommends stocks that are high-risk, with equal mix portfolio of blue chips and newly listed companies. While Ren Agawa is a fund manager (a calculative and conservative one according to Marvin), the stocks he recommended are mostly blue chips companies. What I like most about the seminar is that they share how 2014 top 10 performed. Some outperformed and some under-performed, but if you invest all 10 equally and get the average, you still get an estimate of 30%+ ROI, not bad right? 2014 data is good, but in stock market, past is past (parang relasyon lang), it’s already a history and you cannot get return from it anymore. What really matters is NOW, and the days ahead. To my dear (investor) readers, here’s something for you from the stock market experts. Like what they said, they cannot guarantee ROI for all these stocks, you know the volatility of the market, it goes up and down, no one cannot predict! But studying and analyzing fundamentals & technical as well as knowing the future pipelines of these companies in 2015, Marvin & Ren come up with their Top 10 stocks on 2015:
Ren’s Top 10 (Stock Code + Target Price)
- TEL (3,295) service
- GLO (1,813) service
- AC (785) holding
- ALI (40.5) property
- MEG (5.82) property
- SMPH (19.80) property
- BDO (121) bank
- MBT (112) bank
- MER (312) industrial
- PCOR (9.83) industrial
Important reminders from Ren:
- Our country is banking on GOOD FUNDAMENTALS; But the REALITIES beyond our borders
should NEVER BE IGNORED;
- For 2015, it is good to be OVERWEIGHT rather than be passive;
- Never forget to REACT on the SITUATION at hand.
- Always be particular of WINDOW DRESSING points and the GHOST MONTH.
Marvin’s Top 10
- SSI, Niche & high-end brands
- AGI, buy until 27.5
- RRHI, buy around 67
- LRI, buy until 97
- AP, buy until 55.5
- MEG, buy near 4.6
- MER, buy until 267
- GLO, buy until 1,728
- TEL, buy until 2992
Conditions for 2015 Picks:
- Market is Expensive = 20x
- Growth may not be as high
- Possibility of correction
- OFW remittances continues to grow. More remittances more spending.
- The BPO sector also continues to grow. People in this sector upgrade their lifestyle frequently compared to any other sector.
- Consumption is more insulated to external shocks than other industries that we have.
- Lower gas rates will make consumption even stronger.
- Consumption Stocks Or stocks related to consumption.
- Low Beta Stocks
- Stocks that are far its 1 year high.
- Stocks that are still in their downtrends.
- Stocks that are still cheap.
- Return on Equity
My take on 2015 Top 10: I like the balance portfolio mix of holding, service, property, bank & industrial, of Ren, though consumer sector is missing in the list. Oh Well based on his explanation, investing in SMPH, TEL, GLO is like investing in a consumer sector (I agree, Pinoys regularly spend on mall products & services and communication ). I think His recommendation is low-risk compare to Marvin as most of Ren’s pick are blue chip stocks, has stable performance and consumer driven. While Marvin picks, is more for traders, those who are willing to take high-risk on their investment and those who have time to monitor and study the market trends. But since Marvin is a reputable trader and analysis, we can’t just ignore his recommendation. I highly consider Ren’s & Marvin’s recommendation, but I also do my own research comparing this data with COL, MSCI, BPI and BDO picks.
How about you? What’s your portfolio for 2015?
Do not put all eggs in one basket. – Warren Buffet